Viendo archivo del miércoles, 15 septiembre 2004
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2004 Sep 15 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 259 Publicado el 2200Z a las 15 Sep 2004IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 14-2100Z hasta 15-2100Z Solar activity has been low. Region 672 (N05W03) is a
magnetic complex beta-delta region but has neither shown any real
growth nor decay since 14 Sep. Region 673 (S13E72) was newly
numbered today.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to remain
low. There is a chance for isolated M-level flare activity from
Region 672 (N05W03).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 14-2100Z a 15-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels. A greater
than 10 MeV proton flux event which began on 13 Sep at 2205Z fell
below threshold on 15 Sep at 1015Z. The event reached a maximum of
237 PFU on 14 Sep at 0005Z.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to remain at unsettled to active levels from 16 Sep through
18 Sep due to the arrival of a weak coronal mass ejection that
occurred on 14 Sep at 0930Z. During the arrival of a shock driven
by this event, there is a small chance that the greater than 10 MeV
proton levels will be enhanced.
III. Probabilidades del evento 16 Sep a 18 Sep
| Clase M | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Clase X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Protón | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 15 Sep 110 Previsto 16 Sep-18 Sep 115/115/115 Media de 90 Días 15 Sep 112
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 14 Sep 017/028 Estimado Afr/Ap 15 Sep 010/015 Previsto Afr/Ap 16 Sep-18 Sep 015/025-015/025-010/015
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 16 Sep a 18 Sep
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 40% | 40% | 35% |
| Tormenta Menor | 15% | 15% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 35% | 35% | 35% |
| Tormenta Menor | 35% | 35% | 25% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 20% | 20% | 10% |
All times in UTC
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