Viendo archivo del viernes, 31 diciembre 2004

Informe actividad solar

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2004 Dec 31 2200 UTC
Preparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com

Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica

SDF Número 366 Publicado el 2200Z a las 31 Dec 2004

IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 30-2100Z hasta 31-2100Z

Solar activity was at moderate levels today. Region 715 (N04E34) produced an M4/2n event that occurred at 30/2218Z along with an associated Tenflare (230 sfu), a Type IV spectral radio sweep, and a Type II spectral radio sweep with an estimated shock velocity of 1378 km/s. A related CME was observed on LASCO imagery which appears to have a slight Earth directed component. A more recent M1 x-ray flare occurred at 31/1445Z from this region, and due to insufficient data, it is uncertain whether this flare produced a CME. White light analysis has shown a decay in sunspot area over the period although a small delta magnetic structure can be seen in the southern most cluster of the penumbral spots. The remainder of the disk/limbs were quiescent today. A new region was numbered today as Region 717 (N07W56).
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be at low to moderate levels. Region 715 remains capable of producing M-class flare activity.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 30-2100Z a 31-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels today.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels through day one (1 Jan) of the period. A recurrent high speed coronal hole stream and the CME's that occurred yesterday in response to the M2/Sf event and the M4/2n event that occurred today should induce active to minor storm conditions on days two and three (2-3 Jan).
III. Probabilidades del evento 01 Jan a 03 Jan
Clase M60%50%50%
Clase X10%10%10%
Protón05%05%05%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
  Observado       31 Dec 099
  Previsto   01 Jan-03 Jan  100/100/095
  Media de 90 Días        31 Dec 105
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
  Observado Afr/Ap 30 Dec  012/015
  Estimado     Afr/Ap 31 Dec  008/009
  Previsto    Afr/Ap 01 Jan-03 Jan  008/012-015/020-015/015
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 01 Jan a 03 Jan
A. Latitudes Medias
Activo20%35%35%
Tormenta Menor01%15%15%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa01%05%05%
B. Latitudes Altas
Activo25%40%35%
Tormenta Menor05%20%15%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa01%10%05%

All times in UTC

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