Viendo archivo del lunes, 31 enero 2005
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2005 Jan 31 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 031 Publicado el 2200Z a las 31 Jan 2005IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 30-2100Z hasta 31-2100Z Solar activity has been low. Region 729 (S10E18), a
new region numbered today, produced a C1.3 at 31/1052 UTC. Other
regions did not exhbit significant development. An apparent
backsided CME was observed on LASCO imagery beginning at 31/0918
UTC.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low. Regions 727 (S09W53) and 729 may produce C-class
flares.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 30-2100Z a 31-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been quiet to active from the continuing
influence of the coronal hole high speed stream. The greater than 2
MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit ended the period at a high
level.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to active on 1 February from the residual
effects of elevated solar wind speed. Activity should subside to
quiet to unsettled levels on 2-3 February.
III. Probabilidades del evento 01 Feb a 03 Feb
| Clase M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 31 Jan 086 Previsto 01 Feb-03 Feb 085/085/085 Media de 90 Días 31 Jan 108
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 30 Jan 010/016 Estimado Afr/Ap 31 Jan 015/020 Previsto Afr/Ap 01 Feb-03 Feb 012/020-010/012-008/008
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 01 Feb a 03 Feb
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 35% | 25% | 20% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Tormenta Menor | 20% | 20% | 15% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 05% | 05% |
All times in UTC
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