Viendo archivo del sábado, 12 marzo 2005
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2005 Mar 12 2210 UTC# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, #Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. #
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 071 Publicado el 2200Z a las 12 Mar 2005IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 11-2100Z hasta 12-2100Z Solar activity has been low. Region 741 (N12W41)
produced a C1.7 flare at 0906 UTC. This region also experienced
significant decrease in size, although it increased in magnetic
complexity to a beta-gamma configuration. No new regions were
numbered today.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low. Some possibility remains that Region 741 or 742
(S06E03) may produce C-class flares.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 11-2100Z a 12-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been quiet. The greater than 2 MeV
electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet for the next three days. A small coronal hole
may produce elevated solar wind speeds on 14-15 March leading to
possible unsettled to active conditions.
III. Probabilidades del evento 13 Mar a 15 Mar
| Clase M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 12 Mar 110 Previsto 13 Mar-15 Mar 115/115/115 Media de 90 Días 12 Mar 097
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 11 Mar 003/006 Estimado Afr/Ap 12 Mar 003/005 Previsto Afr/Ap 13 Mar-15 Mar 003/005-010/012-008/010
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 13 Mar a 15 Mar
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 20% | 25% | 25% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 25% | 30% | 30% |
| Tormenta Menor | 20% | 25% | 25% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 05% | 05% |
All times in UTC
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