Viendo archivo del lunes, 22 agosto 2005

Informe actividad solar

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2005 Aug 22 2204 UTC
Preparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com

Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica

SDF Número 234 Publicado el 2200Z a las 22 Aug 2005

IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 21-2100Z hasta 22-2100Z

Solar activity was high. Region 798 (S11W62) produced an M5/1n at 22/1727 UTC. This flare was associated with significant radio output that included a 7100 sfu burst at 2695 MHz, 22000 sfu at 245 MHz, and type IV sweep activity. This region also produced an M2/1f flare at 22/0133 UTC that included significant radio output. Both flares were associated with apparent earth-directed CMEs.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be moderate. Another major flare is possible in Region 798.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 21-2100Z a 22-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled with isolated active periods. This activity is believed to be the result of a high-speed coronal hole stream. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux passed the 10 pfu event threshold at 22/2040 UTC. This event resulted from the M5 flare discussed in Part IA. Today's observed Penticton 10.7 flux was flare enhanced. The daily background value reported in Part IV was estimated to be 105 sfu.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled with isolated active periods for the next 24 hours. Storm conditions are possible on Aug 24 and 25 due to the CME activity which occurred today. The greater than 10 MeV proton event is expected to continue for the next 24 hours.
III. Probabilidades del evento 23 Aug a 25 Aug
Clase M30%30%30%
Clase X05%05%05%
Protón80%20%10%
PCAFred
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
  Observado       22 Aug 157
  Previsto   23 Aug-25 Aug  105/105/100
  Media de 90 Días        22 Aug 094
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
  Observado Afr/Ap 21 Aug  005/008
  Estimado     Afr/Ap 22 Aug  010/012
  Previsto    Afr/Ap 23 Aug-25 Aug  010/010-020/025-020/035
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 23 Aug a 25 Aug
A. Latitudes Medias
Activo30%50%50%
Tormenta Menor15%20%20%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa01%05%05%
B. Latitudes Altas
Activo50%60%60%
Tormenta Menor15%25%25%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa05%10%10%

All times in UTC

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