Viendo archivo del miércoles, 16 agosto 2006

Informe actividad solar

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2006 Aug 16 2203 UTC
Preparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com

Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica

SDF Número 228 Publicado el 2200Z a las 16 Aug 2006

IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 15-2100Z hasta 16-2100Z

Solar activity was low. Region 904 (S12W15) produced a long duration C3.6/Sf flare with maximum occurring at 16/1617Z. An associated partial, or possibly full, halo CME was first observed on LASCO imagery at 16/1630Z. The estimated plane-of-sky speed was about 800 km/s. A Type IV radio sweep was associated with this event. In spite of today's activity, Region 904 has generally remained unchanged during the past 24 hours.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be very low to low. There is a chance for an isolated M-class flare.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 15-2100Z a 16-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels again today.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected to be predominantly quiet on 17-18 August. Unsettled to active conditions, with isolated periods of minor storm levels, are expected on 19 August due to effects of the above-mentioned CME.
III. Probabilidades del evento 17 Aug a 19 Aug
Clase M20%20%20%
Clase X01%01%01%
Protón01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
  Observado       16 Aug 086
  Previsto   17 Aug-19 Aug  086/090/090
  Media de 90 Días        16 Aug 077
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
  Observado Afr/Ap 15 Aug  002/003
  Estimado     Afr/Ap 16 Aug  003/005
  Previsto    Afr/Ap 17 Aug-19 Aug  005/005-005/005-025/025
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 17 Aug a 19 Aug
A. Latitudes Medias
Activo15%15%35%
Tormenta Menor05%05%20%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa01%01%10%
B. Latitudes Altas
Activo15%15%35%
Tormenta Menor10%10%25%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa01%01%15%

All times in UTC

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