Viendo archivo del miércoles, 16 agosto 2006
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2006 Aug 16 2203 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 228 Publicado el 2200Z a las 16 Aug 2006IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 15-2100Z hasta 16-2100Z Solar activity was low. Region 904 (S12W15) produced a
long duration C3.6/Sf flare with maximum occurring at 16/1617Z. An
associated partial, or possibly full, halo CME was first observed on
LASCO imagery at 16/1630Z. The estimated plane-of-sky speed was
about 800 km/s. A Type IV radio sweep was associated with this
event. In spite of today's activity, Region 904 has generally
remained unchanged during the past 24 hours.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low. There is a chance for an isolated M-class flare.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 15-2100Z a 16-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet. The greater than 2 MeV electron
flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels again today.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be predominantly quiet on 17-18 August. Unsettled to
active conditions, with isolated periods of minor storm levels, are
expected on 19 August due to effects of the above-mentioned CME.
III. Probabilidades del evento 17 Aug a 19 Aug
| Clase M | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 16 Aug 086 Previsto 17 Aug-19 Aug 086/090/090 Media de 90 Días 16 Aug 077
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 15 Aug 002/003 Estimado Afr/Ap 16 Aug 003/005 Previsto Afr/Ap 17 Aug-19 Aug 005/005-005/005-025/025
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 17 Aug a 19 Aug
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 15% | 35% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 05% | 20% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 10% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 15% | 35% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 10% | 25% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 15% |
All times in UTC
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