Viendo archivo del jueves, 17 agosto 2006

Informe actividad solar

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2006 Aug 17 2203 UTC
Preparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com

Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica

SDF Número 229 Publicado el 2200Z a las 17 Aug 2006

IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 16-2100Z hasta 17-2100Z

Solar activity was low. Region 904 (S13W28) produced two C1 flares in the past 24 hours. This region continues to be the only spotted group on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be very low to low. There is a slight chance for an isolated M-class event.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 16-2100Z a 17-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels again today.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled on 18 August. Expect active to minor storms levels on 19 August, with possible isolated major storm conditions. This activity is expected due to the full halo CME obseved on 16 August. Predominantly unsettled to active levels should return on 20 August.
III. Probabilidades del evento 18 Aug a 20 Aug
Clase M15%15%15%
Clase X01%01%01%
Protón01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
  Observado       17 Aug 086
  Previsto   18 Aug-20 Aug  090/090/090
  Media de 90 Días        17 Aug 077
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
  Observado Afr/Ap 16 Aug  002/003
  Estimado     Afr/Ap 17 Aug  004/005
  Previsto    Afr/Ap 18 Aug-20 Aug  010/010-025/025-015/015
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 18 Aug a 20 Aug
A. Latitudes Medias
Activo20%35%30%
Tormenta Menor10%20%15%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa01%10%05%
B. Latitudes Altas
Activo25%35%30%
Tormenta Menor15%25%20%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa05%15%10%

All times in UTC

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