Viendo archivo del sábado, 30 septiembre 2006
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2006 Sep 30 2204 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 273 Publicado el 2200Z a las 30 Sep 2006IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 29-2100Z hasta 30-2100Z Solar activity was at very low levels. Region 915
(S06W59) has developed into a Dso beta magnetic sunspot group. It
was the source for a B7.2 x-ray flare which occurred at 30/1703Z.
No new regions were numbered today.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to remain
at very low levels.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 29-2100Z a 30-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to active levels during the
period. Active conditions are due to the onset of a favorably
positioned coronal hole. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at
geosynchronous orbit were at high levels early in the period.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at predominantly unsettled to active levels. Minor
storm conditions are possible on 01 October due to a recurrent
coronal hole. Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected on 02 and
03 October.
III. Probabilidades del evento 01 Oct a 03 Oct
| Clase M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 30 Sep 078 Previsto 01 Oct-03 Oct 080/080/085 Media de 90 Días 30 Sep 077
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 29 Sep 003/003 Estimado Afr/Ap 30 Sep 015/020 Previsto Afr/Ap 01 Oct-03 Oct 015/015-008/008-006/008
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 01 Oct a 03 Oct
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 30% | 20% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 15% | 05% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 35% | 20% | 20% |
| Tormenta Menor | 15% | 05% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 11% | 01% | 01% |
All times in UTC
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