Viendo archivo del sábado, 21 octubre 2006
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2006 Oct 21 2203 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 294 Publicado el 2200Z a las 21 Oct 2006IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 20-2100Z hasta 21-2100Z Solar activity has been very low. Region 917 (S05W33),
now spot class Cso with an expanded area, has been exhibiting
enhanced x-ray flux for the past eight hours and continues to do so
at time of issue.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 20-2100Z a 21-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has ranged from quiet to active. Solar wind
speed is elevated and currently 625 km/s due to a coronal hole high
speed stream. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux briefly reached
high levels today.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled to active on 22 October due to a recurrent
coronal hole high speed stream. Expect quiet to unsettled
conditions for 23 and 24 October.
III. Probabilidades del evento 22 Oct a 24 Oct
| Clase M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 21 Oct 075 Previsto 22 Oct-24 Oct 075/075/075 Media de 90 Días 21 Oct 077
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 20 Oct 009/010 Estimado Afr/Ap 21 Oct 010/015 Previsto Afr/Ap 22 Oct-24 Oct 010/015-005/005-004/005
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 22 Oct a 24 Oct
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 30% | 20% | 20% |
| Tormenta Menor | 15% | 10% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 35% | 25% | 25% |
| Tormenta Menor | 20% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 10% | 05% | 05% |
All times in UTC
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