Viendo archivo del viernes, 20 octubre 2006
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2006 Oct 20 2203 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 293 Publicado el 2200Z a las 20 Oct 2006IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 19-2100Z hasta 20-2100Z Solar activity was very low.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 19-2100Z a 20-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to active. Solar wind speed
has been increasing steadily over the past 24 hours as a coronal
hole high speed stream rotates into a geoeffective position. At
time of issue, the solar wind speed was approximately 500 km/s. The
greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels today.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled to active with periods of minor storming on
21 October due to a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream. The
geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled for 22 and 23
October.
III. Probabilidades del evento 21 Oct a 23 Oct
| Clase M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 20 Oct 071 Previsto 21 Oct-23 Oct 070/070/070 Media de 90 Días 20 Oct 077
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 19 Oct 001/002 Estimado Afr/Ap 20 Oct 015/010 Previsto Afr/Ap 21 Oct-23 Oct 010/020-008/008-005/005
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 21 Oct a 23 Oct
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 35% | 30% | 20% |
| Tormenta Menor | 15% | 15% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 05% | 02% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 45% | 40% | 30% |
| Tormenta Menor | 25% | 25% | 20% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 10% | 05% | 05% |
All times in UTC
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