Viendo archivo del martes, 5 diciembre 2006
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2006 Dec 05 2204 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 339 Publicado el 2200Z a las 05 Dec 2006IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 04-2100Z hasta 05-2100Z Solar activity was high. New Region 930 (S06E72)
produced an X9/2N flare at 05/1035Z. There was a Type II radio
sweep (estimated shock speed of 836 km/s) associated with this
flare, along with a Type IV sweep and a Tenflare. The flare was
observed on the east limb from GOES-12 SXI imagery. A CME was
probably associated with this event, however LASCO imagery was
unavailable to confirm this.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be
moderate to high. Region 930 is expected to produce M-class flares.
In addition, there is a chance for another X-class flare from this
region.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 04-2100Z a 05-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet during the past 24 hours. However, a
solar sector boundary was seen at ACE beginning at about 05/1620Z,
and velocities were increasing at forecast issue time. GOES proton
data showed an enhancement in the greater than 10 MeV protons
beginning at 05/1530Z. The maximum flux observed so far was 3.2
PFU at 05/2050Z.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to active on 6 December. Active to minor storm
conditions, with isolated major storm periods, are expected on 7-8
December due to a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream.
III. Probabilidades del evento 06 Dec a 08 Dec
| Clase M | 70% | 70% | 70% |
| Clase X | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Protón | 35% | 20% | 10% |
| PCAF | yellow | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 05 Dec 102 Previsto 06 Dec-08 Dec 100/105/105 Media de 90 Días 05 Dec 089
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 04 Dec 001/001 Estimado Afr/Ap 05 Dec 005/005 Previsto Afr/Ap 06 Dec-08 Dec 015/015-025/030-020/020
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 06 Dec a 08 Dec
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 30% | 40% | 35% |
| Tormenta Menor | 15% | 25% | 20% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 10% | 05% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 35% | 45% | 40% |
| Tormenta Menor | 20% | 30% | 20% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 10% | 15% | 10% |
All times in UTC
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