Viendo archivo del lunes, 8 febrero 2010
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2010 Feb 08 2211 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
:::::::::: CORRECTED COPY :::::::::: SDF Número 039 Publicado el 2200Z a las 08 Feb 2010IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 07-2100Z hasta 08-2100Z Solar activity was moderate. Region 1045 (N23W17)
produced three M-class events in the last 24 hours. STEREO and
SOHO/LASCO imagery observed CME activity with each of the three
events. The largest event was a M4 at 08/0743Z with an associated
Tenflare of 150 sfu. This region has continued to grow in both
white light area coverage and sunspot count and is a magnetic
beta-gamma-delta configuration. There were two additional Tenflares
observed during the period (both associated with Region 1045
events), a C7/Sf at 08/0415Z with a 100 sfu Tenflare, and a C8/1f at
08/0523Z with a 100 sfu Tenflare. A new region was numbered today
as Region 1047 (S15E70).
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be
moderate with M-class flares likely. There is a slight chance for a
X-class event from Region 1045.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 07-2100Z a 08-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet. One unsettled period at
mid-latitudes was reported at 08/1600Z.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be predominantly unsettled with isolated active
conditions for the next three days (09-11 February). These
conditions are forecast due to the recent CME activity.
III. Probabilidades del evento 09 Feb a 11 Feb
| Clase M | 70% | 70% | 70% |
| Clase X | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Protón | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 08 Feb 094 Previsto 09 Feb-11 Feb 096/096/094 Media de 90 Días 08 Feb 078
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 07 Feb 002/003 Estimado Afr/Ap 08 Feb 003/005 Previsto Afr/Ap 09 Feb-11 Feb 008/008-008/009-010/010
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 09 Feb a 11 Feb
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 30% | 30% | 35% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 05% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 02% | 01% | 05% |
All times in UTC
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