Viendo archivo del miércoles, 4 agosto 2010
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2010 Aug 04 2201 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 216 Publicado el 2200Z a las 04 Aug 2010IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 03-2100Z hasta 04-2100Z Solar activity remained at very low levels. New Region
1093 (N10E63) produced a few B-class flares as it rotated into view
and was classified as a Cao-type group with a beta magnetic
configuration. Region 1092 (N14W15) was quiet and stable during the
period.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be very
low. However, there will be a chance for an isolated C-class flare
from Region 1093.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 03-2100Z a 04-2100Z
Geomagnetic field activity ranged from unsettled to major storm
levels due to a CME passage associated with a long-duration C3 flare
on 01 August. The major storm levels occurred during 03/2100 -
04/0300Z and were associated with increased solar wind velocities
(peak 657 km/s), increased IMF BT (peak 18 nT), and a sustained
period of southward IMF Bz (peak deflection -13 nT). Activity was at
unsettled to minor storm levels after 04/0300Z. The greater than 2
MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit decreased to normal to
moderate levels.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to be at unsettled to active levels until midday on day 1
(05 August). Activity is forecast to increase to active to minor
storm levels with a chance for major storm levels beginning midday
on 05 August due to the expected arrival of a CME associated with a
large filament disappearance on 01 August. Activity is expected to
decrease to unsettled to minor storm levels on day 2 (06 August) as
the CME passage continues. A further decrease to quiet to unsettled
levels is expected on day 3 (07 August).
III. Probabilidades del evento 05 Aug a 07 Aug
| Clase M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 04 Aug 081 Previsto 05 Aug-07 Aug 082/084/084 Media de 90 Días 04 Aug 075
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 03 Aug 014/020 Estimado Afr/Ap 04 Aug 027/030 Previsto Afr/Ap 05 Aug-07 Aug 030/035-020/020-007/007
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 05 Aug a 07 Aug
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 30% | 30% | 20% |
| Tormenta Menor | 40% | 25% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 20% | 05% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 40% | 25% |
| Tormenta Menor | 45% | 30% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 30% | 10% | 01% |
All times in UTC
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