Viendo archivo del sábado, 13 noviembre 2010
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2010 Nov 13 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 317 Publicado el 2200Z a las 13 Nov 2010IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 12-2100Z hasta 13-2100Z Solar activity was low. Region 1123 (S23W24) produced
the only C-class x-ray event of the period, a C1.3/Sf at 13/1128Z.
Associated with this event were radio bursts at 245 MHz and 410 MHz.
An eight degree filament with east-west orientation disappeared
from the disk near N31W09 around 13/06Z. A halo CME became visible
on LASCO C2 at 13/11Z and on C3 and STEREO coronagraphs by 13/21Z
with an earth sided trajectory. This event is believed to be
associated with the DSF at 13/06Z.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is forecast to be low
with a C-class x-ray event likely for the next 3 days (14-16
November).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 12-2100Z a 13-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been quiet. The greater than 2 MeV electron
flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the period.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled with the chance for active
conditions on day 1 (14 November). Conditions are forecast to be
mostly active with the chance for minor storming on days 2 and 3
(15-16 November), due to the expected arrival of a combined shock
from multiple CMEs observed on 11 and 12 November.
III. Probabilidades del evento 14 Nov a 16 Nov
| Clase M | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 13 Nov 085 Previsto 14 Nov-16 Nov 085/085/085 Media de 90 Días 13 Nov 081
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 12 Nov 009/015 Estimado Afr/Ap 13 Nov 006/006 Previsto Afr/Ap 14 Nov-16 Nov 008/010-018/018-012/012
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 14 Nov a 16 Nov
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 30% | 40% | 50% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 45% | 20% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 15% | 10% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 40% | 30% | 50% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 50% | 30% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 20% | 15% |
All times in UTC
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