Viendo archivo del domingo, 14 noviembre 2010
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2010 Nov 14 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 318 Publicado el 2200Z a las 14 Nov 2010IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 13-2100Z hasta 14-2100Z Solar activity was low. Region 1123 (S22W37) produced a
C1/Sf flare at 14/0001Z. Region 1124 (N14W17) has grown in spot
count as well as area while producing several B-class x-ray events.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low
with C-class flares likely for the next three days (15-17 November).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 13-2100Z a 14-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet with isolated periods of
unsettled conditions at mid and high latitudes. The greater than 2
MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during
the period.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly active with the chance for minor storming and
a slight chance major storming on day 1 (15 Nov) due to the
forecasted arrival of a shock from the CME on 12 November.
Conditions are expected to persist at mostly active levels with the
chance for minor storming on day 2 (16 November), and mostly active
with a slight chance for minor storming on day 3 (17 November).
III. Probabilidades del evento 15 Nov a 17 Nov
| Clase M | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 14 Nov 086 Previsto 15 Nov-17 Nov 085/085/085 Media de 90 Días 14 Nov 081
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 13 Nov 004/008 Estimado Afr/Ap 14 Nov 006/010 Previsto Afr/Ap 15 Nov-17 Nov 020/020-015/015-012/012
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 15 Nov a 17 Nov
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 40% | 50% | 30% |
| Tormenta Menor | 45% | 20% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 15% | 10% | 05% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 30% | 50% | 40% |
| Tormenta Menor | 50% | 30% | 20% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 20% | 15% | 10% |
All times in UTC
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