Viendo archivo del miércoles, 9 febrero 2011

Informe actividad solar

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2011 Feb 09 2200 UTC
Preparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com

Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica

SDF Número 040 Publicado el 2200Z a las 09 Feb 2011

IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 08-2100Z hasta 09-2100Z

Solar activity was moderate. Region 1153 (N15W88) produced a M1/Sf flare at 09/0131Z after rapidly increasing in size and magnetic complexity while nearing the west limb.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low on day 1 (10 February) with C-class flares likely and a slight chance for another M-class flare. After Region 1153 moves around the limb, solar activity is forecast to be very low to low with a chance for a C-class flare on days 2 and 3 (11-12 February).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 08-2100Z a 09-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels throughout the period.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected to be predominately quiet for the next 3 days (10-12 February).
III. Probabilidades del evento 10 Feb a 12 Feb
Clase M20%01%01%
Clase X01%01%01%
Protón01%01%01%
PCAFGreen
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
  Observado       09 Feb 089
  Previsto   10 Feb-12 Feb  088/086/084
  Media de 90 Días        09 Feb 084
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
  Observado Afr/Ap 08 Feb  003/004
  Estimado     Afr/Ap 09 Feb  003/005
  Previsto    Afr/Ap 10 Feb-12 Feb  005/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 10 Feb a 12 Feb
A. Latitudes Medias
Activo20%20%20%
Tormenta Menor01%01%01%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa01%01%01%
B. Latitudes Altas
Activo20%20%20%
Tormenta Menor01%01%01%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa01%01%01%

All times in UTC

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