Viendo archivo del miércoles, 16 marzo 2011
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2011 Mar 16 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 075 Publicado el 2200Z a las 16 Mar 2011IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 15-2100Z hasta 16-2100Z Solar activity was at low levels. During the period,
Region 1169 (N17W75) produced a few low-level C-class events
including a long-duration (LDE) C3/Sf flare at 16/2034Z. The flare
was still in progress at the time of this writing. Associated with
this LDE was a partial-halo CME, first observed in LASCO C2 imagery
at 16/1912Z. A preliminary plane-of-sky estimate indicated a
velocity near 500 km/s. The region maintained its beta-gamma
magnetic classification as it approached the west limb. New Region
1173 (S28E39) emerged on the disk as a bi-polar C-type group. The
Penticton 10.7 cm flux and the 90-day mean are estimated for today
(16 March) due to flare enhanced readings.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low
with a chance for an M-class event from Region 1169 for the next two
days (17 - 18 March). On day three (19 March), activity is expected
to be very low with a chance for a C-class event.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 15-2100Z a 16-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet. Observations from the ACE satellite
indicated solar wind velocities averaged about 370 km/s while the Bz
component of the interplanetary magnetic field was mostly north at
+1 to +5 nT.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet for the next three days (17 - 19 March).
III. Probabilidades del evento 17 Mar a 19 Mar
| Clase M | 25% | 05% | 01% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 16 Mar 095 Previsto 17 Mar-19 Mar 090/085/080 Media de 90 Días 16 Mar 094
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 15 Mar 000/000 Estimado Afr/Ap 16 Mar 001/002 Previsto Afr/Ap 17 Mar-19 Mar 005/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 17 Mar a 19 Mar
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Tormenta Menor | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
All times in UTC
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