Viendo archivo del lunes, 28 marzo 2011

Informe actividad solar

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2011 Mar 28 2200 UTC
Preparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com

Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica

SDF Número 087 Publicado el 2200Z a las 28 Mar 2011

IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 27-2100Z hasta 28-2100Z

Solar activity was at low levels. Region 1181 (S26E31) produced a C1/Sf flare at 27/2326Z while Region 1176 (S17W11) produced a C1 X-ray event at 28/1139Z. Region 1176 decayed in area and spot count, but maintained a complex beta-gamma magnetic configuration. Region 1183 (N15E54) indicated growth in area and spot count as it continued to rotate onto the disk. At 28/1405Z, a filament eruption was observed in STEREO-B EUVI 195 near N20, L=030. Associated with this eruption was a CME that lifted off the NE limb, first observed in LASCO C3 imagery at 28/1818Z. Due to the source of this CME, it is not Earth-directed. No new regions were numbered during the period.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low all three days of the forecast period (29 - 31 March). A chance exists all three days for isolated M-class activity.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 27-2100Z a 28-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet. ACE solar wind velocities remained low and steady, only varying between 340 km/s to 370 km/s. The Bz component of the IMF ranged between +/- 4 nT.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet for day one (29 March). By days two and three (30 - 31 March), quiet to unsettled conditions, with isolated active periods, are expected due to the arrival of a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream.
III. Probabilidades del evento 29 Mar a 31 Mar
Clase M35%50%50%
Clase X01%05%05%
Protón01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
  Observado       28 Mar 119
  Previsto   29 Mar-31 Mar  120/130/135
  Media de 90 Días        28 Mar 097
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
  Observado Afr/Ap 27 Mar  002/002
  Estimado     Afr/Ap 28 Mar  002/002
  Previsto    Afr/Ap 29 Mar-31 Mar  005/005-010/010-010/010
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 29 Mar a 31 Mar
A. Latitudes Medias
Activo10%20%20%
Tormenta Menor01%05%05%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa01%01%01%
B. Latitudes Altas
Activo15%25%25%
Tormenta Menor01%10%10%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa01%01%01%

All times in UTC

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