Viendo archivo del domingo, 1 mayo 2011
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2011 May 01 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 121 Publicado el 2200Z a las 01 May 2011IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 30-2100Z hasta 01-2100Z Solar activity was low. Region 1195 (S16W99) produced
the sole event of the period, a C1 flare at 01/0814Z.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is forecast to be very
low to low for the next 3 days (2-4 May).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 30-2100Z a 01-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was unsettled to active at mid latitudes. Minor
to major storm conditions occurred at high latitudes due to Coronal
Hole (CH) high-speed stream (HSS) effects. Solar winds speeds were
sustained above 620 km/s during the period. The greater than 2 MeV
electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the
period.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly unsettled to active with a chance for a minor
storm on day 1 (2 May). Conditions are forecast to be unsettled to
active on day 2 (3 May) and return to quiet on day 3 (4 May) as CH
HSS effects are expected to subside.
III. Probabilidades del evento 02 May a 04 May
| Clase M | 10% | 01% | 01% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 01 May 106 Previsto 02 May-04 May 105/100/100 Media de 90 Días 01 May 108
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 30 Apr 017/024 Estimado Afr/Ap 01 May 016/022 Previsto Afr/Ap 02 May-04 May 012/015-008/010-005/005
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 02 May a 04 May
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 40% | 30% | 20% |
| Tormenta Menor | 30% | 10% | 01% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 50% | 40% | 20% |
| Tormenta Menor | 25% | 15% | 01% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 10% | 01% | 01% |
All times in UTC
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