Viendo archivo del lunes, 2 mayo 2011
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2011 May 02 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 122 Publicado el 2200Z a las 02 May 2011IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 01-2100Z hasta 02-2100Z Solar activity was low. A filament disappeared from
S20E33 around 14Z. A concurrent CME was visible leaving off the east
limb based on the NASA SOHO LASCO C2 coronagraph, though it does not
initially appear that it will be geoeffective.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low for the next 3 days (3-5 May).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 01-2100Z a 02-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from unsettled to minor storm conditions
due to coronal hole (CH) high-speed stream effects (HSS). Solar
winds speeds were sustained above 640 km/s during the period. The
greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached
high levels during the period.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled to active on day 1 (3 May) as CH HSS
effects wane. Mostly quiet conditions are forecasted for days 2 and
3 (4-5 May).
III. Probabilidades del evento 03 May a 05 May
| Clase M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 02 May 110 Previsto 03 May-05 May 110/110/110 Media de 90 Días 02 May 108
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 01 May 013/019 Estimado Afr/Ap 02 May 010/018 Previsto Afr/Ap 03 May-05 May 008/012-005/008-005/005
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 03 May a 05 May
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 40% | 20% | 20% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 60% | 30% | 20% |
| Tormenta Menor | 20% | 01% | 01% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 01% | 01% |
All times in UTC
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