Viendo archivo del viernes, 8 julio 2011
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2011 Jul 08 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 189 Publicado el 2200Z a las 08 Jul 2011IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 07-2100Z hasta 08-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24
hours. New Region 1247 (S18E11) emerged early in period and has
produced four C-class events, the largest being a C3/1N at 1331Z.
Region 1247 continued to grow throughout the period and remains the
most active region on the visible disk. Two other regions were
numbered today, Region 1246 (N14W47) and Region 1248 (N20E53), but
both have remained quiet and stable.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be at
low levels with a slight chance for M-class events for the next
three days (09-11 July), as Region 1247 continues to grow and
evolve.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 07-2100Z a 08-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been mostly quiet for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speeds, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, have remained
at background levels, ranging from 330 km/s - 380 km/s. The greater
than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels
during the period.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled with a chance for active conditions on day
one (09 July), as a recurrent coronal hole high-speed stream (CH
HSS) moves into a geoeffective position. Quiet to unsettled levels
are expected on day two (10 July), as the effects of the CH HSS
continue. A return to quiet levels is expected on day three (11
July).
III. Probabilidades del evento 09 Jul a 11 Jul
| Clase M | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 08 Jul 086 Previsto 09 Jul-11 Jul 088/088/088 Media de 90 Días 08 Jul 099
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 07 Jul 006/006 Estimado Afr/Ap 08 Jul 007/007 Previsto Afr/Ap 09 Jul-11 Jul 010/010-007/007-005/005
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 09 Jul a 11 Jul
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 25% | 20% | 05% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 30% | 25% | 10% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
All times in UTC
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