Viendo archivo del sábado, 9 julio 2011
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2011 Jul 09 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 190 Publicado el 2200Z a las 09 Jul 2011IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 08-2100Z hasta 09-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past
24 hours. Region 1247 (S18W02) produced the largest event of the
period, a B4 x-ray event at 09/0028Z. A nearby filament eruption was
associated with this event with a subsequent partial-halo asymmetric
CME, first visible in LASCO C2 imagery at 09/0125Z. This CME does
have an earth directed component. Region 1249 (S16E25) was numbered
early in the period but like many of the numbered regions on the
disk, has remained stable.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be at
very low to low levels for the next three days (10-12 July).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 08-2100Z a 09-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels of the past
24 hours. The elevated activity was due to a solar sector boundary
(SSB) crossing early in the period. Measurements by the ACE
spacecraft indicate the onset of a coronal hole high speed stream
(CH HSS) with solar wind speeds increasing, from 350 km/s to
around 450 km/s.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels for the next two days
(10-11 July) as a CH HSS continues to be geoeffective. On day three
(12 July), coupled with the arrival of another CH HSS, the CME,
observed earlier today, is expected to impact Earth. Since this CME
was only a partial-halo and is not traveling at great speed, only
unsettled to active levels are expected.
III. Probabilidades del evento 10 Jul a 12 Jul
| Clase M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 09 Jul 086 Previsto 10 Jul-12 Jul 086/086/088 Media de 90 Días 09 Jul 099
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 08 Jul 006/008 Estimado Afr/Ap 09 Jul 010/010 Previsto Afr/Ap 10 Jul-12 Jul 007/007-007/007-012/012
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 10 Jul a 12 Jul
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 20% | 20% | 30% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 05% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 25% | 25% | 40% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 05% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
All times in UTC
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