Viendo archivo del jueves, 21 julio 2011
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2011 Jul 21 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 202 Publicado el 2200Z a las 21 Jul 2011IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 20-2100Z hasta 21-2100Z Solar activity was very low. Regions 1254 (S24W28) and
1259 (N25E32) remained present on the disk but were quiet and
stable.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low for the next 3 days (22-24 July).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 20-2100Z a 21-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was mostly unsettled for the majority of the
period, before decreasing to quiet conditions as Bz turned primarily north. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached
high levels during the period.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled to active for days 1-2 (22-23 July), then
decreasing to mostly quiet on day 3 (24 July) as coronal hole
effects wane.
III. Probabilidades del evento 22 Jul a 24 Jul
| Clase M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 21 Jul 096 Previsto 22 Jul-24 Jul 096/095/095 Media de 90 Días 21 Jul 096
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 20 Jul 012/019 Estimado Afr/Ap 21 Jul 010/012 Previsto Afr/Ap 22 Jul-24 Jul 010/010-008/008-005/005
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 22 Jul a 24 Jul
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 40% | 30% | 20% |
| Tormenta Menor | 30% | 10% | 01% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 50% | 40% | 20% |
| Tormenta Menor | 40% | 30% | 20% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 10% | 05% | 01% |
All times in UTC
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