Viendo archivo del domingo, 21 agosto 2011
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2011 Aug 21 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 233 Publicado el 2200Z a las 21 Aug 2011IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 20-2100Z hasta 21-2100Z Solar activity was very low to low. Region 1271
(N16W01) produced a C2/Sf event at 20/2258Z. Region 1272 (S21E03)
produced several B-class/Sf events in the past 24 hours followed by
a C1/Sf at 21/1840Z. Regions 1271 and 1272 showed significant growth
in trailer areas. Region 1275 (N06E68) was numbered today.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low
with a slight chance for moderate activity.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 20-2100Z a 21-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled due to the arrival of a
favorably positioned negative polarity coronal hole.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled with a chance for active conditions at high
latitudes on Days 1 and 2 (22-23 Aug) with the arrival of a second
coronal hole high speed stream (HSS). Day 3 (24 Aug) is expected to
decrease to quiet conditions as effects from the HSS subside.
III. Probabilidades del evento 22 Aug a 24 Aug
| Clase M | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 21 Aug 101 Previsto 22 Aug-24 Aug 103/105/105 Media de 90 Días 21 Aug 096
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 20 Aug 004/005 Estimado Afr/Ap 21 Aug 005/005 Previsto Afr/Ap 22 Aug-24 Aug 010/012-008/010-005/005
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 22 Aug a 24 Aug
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 25% | 20% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 05% | 01% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 40% | 40% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 20% | 15% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 10% | 05% | 01% |
All times in UTC
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