Viendo archivo del viernes, 23 septiembre 2011
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2011 Sep 23 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 266 Publicado el 2200Z a las 23 Sep 2011IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 22-2100Z hasta 23-2100Z Solar activity was moderate. An M1/1n flare was
observed at 23/0159Z from Region 1295 (N25W74) along with several
C-class flares, including an long-duration flare at 23/0850Z. Region
1302 (N13E58) remains the most significant region on the disk as an
Eki Beta-Gamma with an area of 780 millionths.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be high,
with a slight chance for another X-class flare from Region 1302.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 22-2100Z a 23-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet. The 10 MeV protons at geosynchronous
orbit are expected to exceed the 10 pfu threshold during the period.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet on day one (24 September). Quiet, with isolated
unsettled levels, are expected on day two (25 September), due to a
weak coronal hole high-speed stream. Quiet levels are expected on
day three (26 September).
III. Probabilidades del evento 24 Sep a 26 Sep
| Clase M | 70% | 70% | 70% |
| Clase X | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Protón | 90% | 80% | 50% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 23 Sep 158 Previsto 24 Sep-26 Sep 160/165/170 Media de 90 Días 23 Sep 106
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 22 Sep 002/003 Estimado Afr/Ap 23 Sep 002/004 Previsto Afr/Ap 24 Sep-26 Sep 005/005-007/008-005/005
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 24 Sep a 26 Sep
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 05% | 10% | 05% |
| Tormenta Menor | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 10% | 15% | 10% |
| Tormenta Menor | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
All times in UTC
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