Viendo archivo del jueves, 22 septiembre 2011

Informe actividad solar

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2011 Sep 22 2225 UTC
Preparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com

Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica

:::::::::: CORRECTED COPY :::::::::: SDF Número 265 Publicado el 2200Z a las 22 Sep 2011

IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 21-2100Z hasta 22-2100Z

Activity was high. New Region 1302 (N11E74) produced a long-duration X1/2n flare at 22/1101Z. The X1 flare was associated with Types II and IV radio sweeps, a 970 sfu Tenflare, and a full halo CME. The CME, already in progress in SOHO LASCO images at 22/1330Z, had an estimated speed of around 1392 km/s. This CME is not expected to be geoeffective.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be high, with a slight chance for another X-class flare from Region 1302.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 21-2100Z a 22-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet on days one and two (23-24 September). Quiet to unsettled levels, with isolated active levels at high latitudes, are expected on day three (25 September), due to a weak coronal hole high-speed stream.
III. Probabilidades del evento 23 Sep a 25 Sep
Clase M70%70%70%
Clase X20%20%20%
Protón10%10%10%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
  Observado       22 Sep 151
  Previsto   23 Sep-25 Sep  155/160/165
  Media de 90 Días        22 Sep 105
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
  Observado Afr/Ap 21 Sep  002/005
  Estimado     Afr/Ap 22 Sep  003/004
  Previsto    Afr/Ap 23 Sep-25 Sep  005/005-005/005-007/008
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 23 Sep a 25 Sep
A. Latitudes Medias
Activo05%05%10%
Tormenta Menor01%01%01%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa01%01%01%
B. Latitudes Altas
Activo10%10%15%
Tormenta Menor01%01%01%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa01%01%01%

All times in UTC

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