Viendo archivo del jueves, 27 octubre 2011

Informe actividad solar

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2011 Oct 27 2200 UTC
Preparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com

Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica

SDF Número 300 Publicado el 2200Z a las 27 Oct 2011

IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 26-2100Z hasta 27-2100Z

Solar activity was low due to one C-class flare, a C2 that occurred at 1844Z. The source was attributed to new Region 1333 (N15E11) which emerged today on the disk as a small, D-type sunspot region. Region 1330 (N09E04) continues to be the largest group on the disk as a 500 millionths E-type group with a beta-gamma magnetic configuration, but could only manage to produce a small B6 flare 0102Z. The remainder of the disk was generally quiet and stable.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be very low to low, with an additional isolated C-flare considered to be likely. There is a slight chance for an isolated M-class flare from either of Region 1330 or 1333.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 26-2100Z a 27-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet during the past 24 hours.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected to be generally quiet for the first two days (29-29 October). An increase to unsettled levels is expected late on the 29th or early on the 30th due to high speed solar wind stream from a coronal hole. Unsettled levels are expected to continue through 30-31 October.
III. Probabilidades del evento 28 Oct a 30 Oct
Clase M10%10%10%
Clase X01%01%01%
Protón01%01%01%
PCAFGreen
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
  Observado       27 Oct 132
  Previsto   28 Oct-30 Oct  130/130/130
  Media de 90 Días        27 Oct 124
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
  Observado Afr/Ap 26 Oct  004/003
  Estimado     Afr/Ap 27 Oct  005/005
  Previsto    Afr/Ap 28 Oct-30 Oct  007/007-007/008-010/010
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 28 Oct a 30 Oct
A. Latitudes Medias
Activo10%10%25%
Tormenta Menor05%05%15%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa01%01%05%
B. Latitudes Altas
Activo15%15%35%
Tormenta Menor05%05%25%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa01%01%16%

All times in UTC

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