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Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2011 Nov 08 2355 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 312 Publicado el 2200Z a las 08 Nov 2011 * * * * * * * * * * Corrected Copy * * * * * * * * * *IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 07-2100Z hasta 08-2100Z Solar activity was low. Region 1339 (N19W08) produced a
few low-level C-class events during the period. The region continued
to exhibit slow decay, both in area and spot count, as well as
magnetic complexity losing its Delta configuration. The other large
region on the disk, Region 1338 (S14W25) also is in slow decay, both
in area and magnetic complexity, and is now classified as a Beta
group. New region 1344 (S22W07) emerged on the disk early in the
period as a simple uni-polar spot group. Early in the period, a
filament eruption along a 25 degree channel was observed in SDO/AIA
imagery beginning at about 07/2232Z. LASCO C2 imagery first observed
a CME lifting off the NW limb at 07/2348Z.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be
moderate during the period (09 - 11 November) with a slight chance
for high activity (M5 or greater) from Region 1339. There is also a
slight chance for a proton flare from this region during the period.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 07-2100Z a 08-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels with isolated
high latitude minor storm periods. Solar wind speeds generally were
below 400 km/s while the Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic
field fluctuated between +/- 7 nT.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet levels during day one and two of the period
(09 - 10 November). By day three (11 November), the field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels, with isolated high
latitude active periods, as glancing blow effects from the 07
November CME are felt.
III. Probabilidades del evento 09 Nov a 11 Nov
| Clase M | 70% | 70% | 70% |
| Clase X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Protón | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 08 Nov 181 Previsto 09 Nov-11 Nov 180/180/175 Media de 90 Días 08 Nov 130
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 07 Nov 004/004 Estimado Afr/Ap 08 Nov 006/006 Previsto Afr/Ap 09 Nov-11 Nov 004/005-004/005-007/008
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 09 Nov a 11 Nov
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 05% | 05% | 13% |
| Tormenta Menor | 02% | 02% | 03% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 15% | 16% |
| Tormenta Menor | 13% | 13% | 20% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 08% | 08% | 14% |
All times in UTC
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