Viendo archivo del miércoles, 12 octubre 2011
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2011 Oct 12 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 285 Publicado el 2200Z a las 12 Oct 2011IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 11-2100Z hasta 12-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24
hours. Two new regions were numbered today, Region 1318 (N21W03) and
Region 1319 (N08E42). Since the emergence of Region 1319, in the
vicinity of Region 1314 (N25E33), solar activity has increased with
both regions producing low level C-class events.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be at
low levels with a chance for M-class events for the next three days
(13-15 October).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 11-2100Z a 12-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at predominantly quiet levels for the
past 24 hours. Solar wind signatures, as measured by the ACE
spacecraft, indicated the arrival of a weak coronal hole high speed
stream (CH HSS). Solar wind speeds peaked around 450 km/s but have
since decreased to nominal levels, around 400 km/s.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to remain at predominantly quiet levels for the next two
days (13-14 October). Late on day three (15 October), quiet to
unsettled levels are forecast due to the arrival of another CH HSS.
III. Probabilidades del evento 13 Oct a 15 Oct
| Clase M | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 12 Oct 134 Previsto 13 Oct-15 Oct 135/135/135 Media de 90 Días 12 Oct 116
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 11 Oct 003/004 Estimado Afr/Ap 12 Oct 005/005 Previsto Afr/Ap 13 Oct-15 Oct 005/005-005/005-008/008
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 13 Oct a 15 Oct
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 05% | 05% | 20% |
| Tormenta Menor | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 10% | 10% | 30% |
| Tormenta Menor | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
All times in UTC
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