Viendo archivo del sábado, 10 diciembre 2011
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2011 Dec 10 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 344 Publicado el 2200Z a las 10 Dec 2011IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 09-2100Z hasta 10-2100Z Solar activity was low. Region 1375 (N09E39) produced a
C1 x-ray event at 10/0631Z. The remainder of the disk and limb was
quiet and stable.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to remain
at low levels with a slight chance for M-class activity all three
days of the period (11 - 13 December).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 09-2100Z a 10-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels. Solar wind
velocities gradually increased through the period from 350 km/s to a
peak of near 500 km/s at about 10/1000Z. Excursions of southward
interplanetary magnetic field Bz to -10 nT were observed between
01/0200Z - 0600Z.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels with isolated active
periods on day one (11 December) due to effects of a recurrent
coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS). A return to mostly quiet
conditions are expected by days two and three (12 - 13 December) as
effects from the CH HSS wane.
III. Probabilidades del evento 11 Dec a 13 Dec
| Clase M | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 10 Dec 140 Previsto 11 Dec-13 Dec 140/140/140 Media de 90 Días 10 Dec 146
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 09 Dec 003/003 Estimado Afr/Ap 10 Dec 005/005 Previsto Afr/Ap 11 Dec-13 Dec 007/008-005/005-005/005
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 11 Dec a 13 Dec
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 05% | 05% |
| Tormenta Menor | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 20% | 10% | 10% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
All times in UTC
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