Viendo archivo del viernes, 2 marzo 2012
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2012 Mar 02 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 062 Publicado el 2200Z a las 02 Mar 2012IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 01-2100Z hasta 02-2100Z Solar activity reached moderate levels today. An M3/Sf
flare was observed off the NE limb at 02/1746Z near N16. As the
region rotates on the visible disk, a more detailed analysis of its
complexity can be determined. STEREO B EUVI 195 imagery indicated a
possible CME associated with the event beginning at 02/1746Z,
however, further imagery from SOHO/LASCO will be needed to confirm.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low
with M-class activity likely from the new region rotating onto the
NE limb.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 01-2100Z a 02-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active with an isolated minor
storm period observed at high latitudes during the period 02/1200 -
1500Z. Activity was due to sustained periods of southward Bz of the
interplanetary magnetic field coupled with an elevated solar wind
speed around 450 km/s. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at
geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the period.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to continue at quiet to unsettled conditions on day 1 (03
March). Mostly quiet conditions are expected on day 2 (04 March).
A recurrent coronal high speed stream is expected increase
conditions to quiet to unsettled levels on day 3 (05 March).
III. Probabilidades del evento 03 Mar a 05 Mar
| Clase M | 55% | 55% | 55% |
| Clase X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 02 Mar 108 Previsto 03 Mar-05 Mar 110/110/110 Media de 90 Días 02 Mar 126
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 01 Mar 012/015 Estimado Afr/Ap 02 Mar 008/010 Previsto Afr/Ap 03 Mar-05 Mar 008/008-006/005-007/008
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 03 Mar a 05 Mar
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 05% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 01% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 20% | 15% | 20% |
| Tormenta Menor | 15% | 10% | 15% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 01% | 05% |
All times in UTC
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