Viendo archivo del miércoles, 16 mayo 2012

Informe actividad solar

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2012 May 16 2200 UTC
Preparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com

Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica

SDF Número 137 Publicado el 2200Z a las 16 May 2012

IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 15-2100Z hasta 16-2100Z

Solar activity was low. Region 1476 (N13W73) produced a few C-class flares while continuing to decay. Regions 1482 (N13E10) and 1484 (N09E38) also produced a few low level C-class events. A pair of CMEs associated with apparent filament eruptions were observed in LASCO C2/C3, but neither appear to be earth directed.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be very low to low for the next 3 days (17-19 May).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 15-2100Z a 16-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the period.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
With the exception of an isolated unsettled or active period early on day 1 (17 May) from an expected solar sector boundary crossing, geomagnetic field conditions are expected to be mostly quiet throughout the period (17-19 May).
III. Probabilidades del evento 17 May a 19 May
Clase M10%10%10%
Clase X01%01%01%
Protón01%01%01%
PCAFGreen
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
  Observado       16 May 131
  Previsto   17 May-19 May  130/130/130
  Media de 90 Días        16 May 115
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
  Observado Afr/Ap 15 May  005/005
  Estimado     Afr/Ap 16 May  007/008
  Previsto    Afr/Ap 17 May-19 May  004/005-004/005-004/005
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 17 May a 19 May
A. Latitudes Medias
Activo10%10%10%
Tormenta Menor01%01%01%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa01%01%01%
B. Latitudes Altas
Activo15%15%15%
Tormenta Menor01%01%01%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa01%01%01%

All times in UTC

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