Viendo archivo del sábado, 9 junio 2012
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2012 Jun 09 2245 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 161 Publicado el 2200Z a las 09 Jun 2012 :::::::::Corrected Copy:::::::::::IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 08-2100Z hasta 09-2100Z Solar activity was moderate. Region 1499 (N16W31) was
the most active region producing two M-class x-ray events. The first
event was an impulsive M1 flare at 09/1132Z and the second was also
an impulsive M1/Sf event which occurred at 09/1645Z. Region 1499
also produced several C1 events at 09/0308Z, 1032Z, and 1527Z.
Region 1499 was classified as a Cao type group with beta-gamma
magnetic characteristics. New Region 1504 (S18E67) was numbered
today and classified as a Cao type group with beta magnetic
characteristics. New Region 1505(S09E63) was also numbered today and
classified as a Axx type group with alpha magnetic characteristics.
There were no earth-directed CMEs observed during the period.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to remain
low with an increasing chance for occasional M-class activity for
the next three days (10-12 June).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 08-2100Z a 09-2100Z
The geomagnetic field activity was mostly quiet. A weak disturbance
was observed on both ground and GOES magnetometers at 09/1841Z
leading to the single unsettled period of the day. Solar wind speed
at the ACE spacecraft continued to decline and ended the period near
440 km/s. The Bz component of the interplanetary magentic field
remained mostly neutral or positive. The greater than 2 MeV electron
flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the period.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled for the next three days (10-12
June) with the anticiapted glancing blows from CMEs on 06 June and
08 June and the arrival on 11 June of a coronal hole high speed
stream.
III. Probabilidades del evento 10 Jun a 12 Jun
| Clase M | 45% | 50% | 55% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 09 Jun 128 Previsto 10 Jun-12 Jun 130/130/130 Media de 90 Días 09 Jun 117
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 08 Jun 009/009 Estimado Afr/Ap 09 Jun 006/007 Previsto Afr/Ap 10 Jun-12 Jun 007/010-007/010-007/010
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 10 Jun a 12 Jun
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 30% | 30% | 30% |
All times in UTC
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