Viendo archivo del viernes, 6 julio 2012
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2012 Jul 06 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 188 Publicado el 2200Z a las 06 Jul 2012IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 05-2100Z hasta 06-2100Z Solar activity was moderate. Region 1515 (S18W50)
continued to produce M-class flares, the largest an M2/Sn at
06/0140Z. The region continued to grow to 900 millionths and
maintained a beta-gamma-delta magnetic configuration. Region 1513
(N15W65) showed slight decay and is now considered an Hsx-alpha type
spot group.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be
moderate with a chance for X-class flares for the next three days
(07-09 July).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 05-2100Z a 06-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled during the past 24
hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit
reached high levels during the period.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled to active with a chance for minor storm
conditions on days one and two (07-08 July) due to combined effects
from the CMEs observed on 03 and 04 July. Quiet to unsettled
conditions are expected on day three (09 July) as effects from the
CMEs subside.
III. Probabilidades del evento 07 Jul a 09 Jul
| Clase M | 80% | 80% | 80% |
| Clase X | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Protón | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 06 Jul 158 Previsto 07 Jul-09 Jul 165/160/155 Media de 90 Días 06 Jul 122
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 05 Jul 013/013 Estimado Afr/Ap 06 Jul 008/009 Previsto Afr/Ap 07 Jul-09 Jul 015/022-017/025-012/012
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 07 Jul a 09 Jul
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 30% | 45% | 20% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 15% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 10% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 40% | 55% | 30% |
All times in UTC
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