Viendo archivo del viernes, 15 junio 2012
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2012 Jun 15 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 167 Publicado el 2200Z a las 15 Jun 2012IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 14-2100Z hasta 15-2100Z Solar activity decreased to low levels. Region 1504
(S16W12) produced several C-class flares, the largest of which was a
C3/Sf flare at 1324Z. Although the magnetic configuration has
simplified from a delta to a beta-gamma, the area of the region has
increased. The remaining regions were relatively stable.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. Isolated M-class flares are likely for the next three
days (16 June-18 June), primarily from Region 1504.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 14-2100Z a 15-2100Z
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet levels.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to be mostly quiet until late on day 1 (16 June) to early
on day 2 (17 June). Activity is then expected to increase to active
levels with a chance for minor storm levels due to the combined
effects from both the 13 and 14 June CMEs. On day 3 (18 June)
conditions are expected to return to quiet to unsettled levels.
III. Probabilidades del evento 16 Jun a 18 Jun
| Clase M | 65% | 65% | 65% |
| Clase X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Protón | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 15 Jun 145 Previsto 16 Jun-18 Jun 145/145/145 Media de 90 Días 15 Jun 118
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 14 Jun 004/004 Estimado Afr/Ap 15 Jun 002/004 Previsto Afr/Ap 16 Jun-18 Jun 008/015-017/022-009/012
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 16 Jun a 18 Jun
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 25% | 30% | 25% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 20% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 10% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 25% | 20% | 20% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 40% | 50% | 30% |
All times in UTC
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