Viendo archivo del viernes, 15 junio 2012

Informe actividad solar

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2012 Jun 15 2200 UTC
Preparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com

Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica

SDF Número 167 Publicado el 2200Z a las 15 Jun 2012

IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 14-2100Z hasta 15-2100Z

Solar activity decreased to low levels. Region 1504 (S16W12) produced several C-class flares, the largest of which was a C3/Sf flare at 1324Z. Although the magnetic configuration has simplified from a delta to a beta-gamma, the area of the region has increased. The remaining regions were relatively stable.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate. Isolated M-class flares are likely for the next three days (16 June-18 June), primarily from Region 1504.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 14-2100Z a 15-2100Z
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet levels.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be mostly quiet until late on day 1 (16 June) to early on day 2 (17 June). Activity is then expected to increase to active levels with a chance for minor storm levels due to the combined effects from both the 13 and 14 June CMEs. On day 3 (18 June) conditions are expected to return to quiet to unsettled levels.
III. Probabilidades del evento 16 Jun a 18 Jun
Clase M65%65%65%
Clase X05%05%05%
Protón20%20%20%
PCAFGreen
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
  Observado       15 Jun 145
  Previsto   16 Jun-18 Jun  145/145/145
  Media de 90 Días        15 Jun 118
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
  Observado Afr/Ap 14 Jun  004/004
  Estimado     Afr/Ap 15 Jun  002/004
  Previsto    Afr/Ap 16 Jun-18 Jun  008/015-017/022-009/012
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 16 Jun a 18 Jun
A. Latitudes Medias
Activo25%30%25%
Tormenta Menor10%20%10%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa05%05%05%
B. Latitudes Altas
Activo15%10%15%
Tormenta Menor25%20%20%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa40%50%30%

All times in UTC

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