Viendo archivo del jueves, 14 junio 2012

Informe actividad solar

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2012 Jun 14 2200 UTC
Preparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com

Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica

SDF Número 166 Publicado el 2200Z a las 14 Jun 2012

IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 13-2100Z hasta 14-2100Z

Solar activity was moderate. Region 1504 (S16E01) produced a long duration M1/1n flare with maximum at 14/1435Z. This event was associated with a 1400 sfu Tenflare and a Type IV radio sweep. This region showed growth and maintained its beta-gamma-delta magnetic configuration. An associated CME was observed in STEREO imagery at 14/1424Z with an estimated plane-of-sky velocity between 900 and 1100 km/s.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be moderate. An isolated M-class event is likely from Region 1504.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 13-2100Z a 14-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
Geomagnetic activity is expected to be quiet on 15-16 June. An increase to unsettled to active levels is expected early on day 3 (17 June) due to combined effects from both the 13 June and 14 June CMEs.
III. Probabilidades del evento 15 Jun a 17 Jun
Clase M65%65%65%
Clase X05%05%05%
Protón05%05%05%
PCAFGreen
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
  Observado       14 Jun 149
  Previsto   15 Jun-17 Jun  150/150/145
  Media de 90 Días        14 Jun 118
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
  Observado Afr/Ap 13 Jun  007/007
  Estimado     Afr/Ap 14 Jun  004/004
  Previsto    Afr/Ap 15 Jun-17 Jun  006/005-006/005-014/018
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 15 Jun a 17 Jun
A. Latitudes Medias
Activo05%05%30%
Tormenta Menor01%01%05%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa01%01%01%
B. Latitudes Altas
Activo15%15%15%
Tormenta Menor10%10%30%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa05%05%35%

All times in UTC

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