Viendo archivo del lunes, 20 agosto 2012

Informe actividad solar

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2012 Aug 20 2200 UTC
Preparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com

Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica

SDF Número 233 Publicado el 2200Z a las 20 Aug 2012

IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 19-2100Z hasta 20-2100Z

Solar activity was very low. Region 1543 (N21, L=021) produced the largest event of the period, a B8 flare at 19/2315Z, off of the northwest limb. Region 1548 (N20E47) also produced a low level B-class flare. The remaining spotted regions were stable and quiet. A full halo CME was observed in SOHO/LASCO C3 coronagraph imagery beginning at 19/1918Z with an estimated plane-of-sky speed of 605 km/s. STEREO-A and STEREO-B COR2 imagery shows this CME to be a back-sided event and is not expected to be geoeffective.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be very low to low with a slight chance for an M-class event for the next three days (21-23 August).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 19-2100Z a 20-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled with an isolated active period between 19/2100Z to 20/0000Z.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled with a slight chance for active conditions on days 1-2 (21-22 August) due to continued effects from the coronal hole high speed stream. On day 3 (23 August) conditions are expected to return to predominately quiet levels.
III. Probabilidades del evento 21 Aug a 23 Aug
Clase M15%15%15%
Clase X01%01%01%
Protón01%01%01%
PCAFGreen
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
  Observado       20 Aug 096
  Previsto   21 Aug-23 Aug  100/100/105
  Media de 90 Días        20 Aug 125
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
  Observado Afr/Ap 19 Aug  010/012
  Estimado     Afr/Ap 20 Aug  011/012
  Previsto    Afr/Ap 21 Aug-23 Aug  007/008-007/008-006/005
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 21 Aug a 23 Aug
A. Latitudes Medias
Activo10%10%05%
Tormenta Menor05%05%01%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa01%01%01%
B. Latitudes Altas
Activo15%15%15%
Tormenta Menor20%20%15%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa15%20%05%

All times in UTC

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