Viendo archivo del sábado, 6 octubre 2012
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2012 Oct 06 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 280 Publicado el 2200Z a las 06 Oct 2012IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 05-2100Z hasta 06-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past
24 hours. Region 1585 (S20E12) has been the most active region
producing multiple B-class events. No Earth directed CMEs were
observed in the past 24 hours.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be at
very low to low levels for the next three days (07-09 October).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 05-2100Z a 06-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at predominantly quiet levels for the
past 24 hours. Solar wind speeds, as measured by the ACE spacecraft,
remain at nominal levels, however energetic particle measurments by
the EPAM sensor, indicate a CME is currently traveling towards
Earth.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at predominantly quiet levels on day one (07
October). An increase to unsettled to active levels with a chance
for minor storm periods is expected on days two and three (08-09
October) as the 05 October CME is forecasted to arrive.
III. Probabilidades del evento 07 Oct a 09 Oct
| Clase M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 06 Oct 099 Previsto 07 Oct-09 Oct 098/098/095 Media de 90 Días 06 Oct 121
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 05 Oct 003/004 Estimado Afr/Ap 06 Oct 006/007 Previsto Afr/Ap 07 Oct-09 Oct 005/005-015/018-017/020
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 07 Oct a 09 Oct
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 05% | 30% | 35% |
| Tormenta Menor | 01% | 15% | 20% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 05% | 05% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 15% | 20% |
| Tormenta Menor | 15% | 20% | 25% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 20% | 35% |
All times in UTC
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