Viendo archivo del domingo, 6 enero 2013
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2013 Jan 06 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 6 Publicado el 2200Z a las 06 Jan 2013IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 05-2100Z hasta 06-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C3 event observed at
06/0303Z from Region 1653 (N09E63). There are currently 14 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be at low
levels with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (07
Jan, 08 Jan, 09 Jan).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 05-2100Z a 06-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 370 km/s at
06/2036Z. Total IMF reached 9.4 nT at 06/1629Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -6.2 nT at 06/0803Z.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days 1-2 (07 Jan, 08 Jan). Quiet
levels are expected on day 3 (09 Jan).
III. Probabilidades del evento 07 Jan a 09 Jan
| Clase M | 35% | 25% | 25% |
| Clase X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 06 Jan 142 Previsto 07 Jan-09 Jan 140/135/130 Media de 90 Días 06 Jan 119
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 05 Jan 001/002 Estimado Afr/Ap 06 Jan 003/003 Previsto Afr/Ap 07 Jan-09 Jan 006/008-006/008-006/005
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 07 Jan a 09 Jan
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 20% | 20% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 15% | 15% | 05% |
All times in UTC
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