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Informe actividad solar

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2013 Jan 21 2200 UTC
Preparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com

Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica

SDF Número 21 Publicado el 2200Z a las 21 Jan 2013

IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 20-2100Z hasta 21-2100Z

Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. Region 1658 (S12W46) produced the largest flare of the period, a B4 flare, at 21/0930Z. Region 1654 (N09W88) produced two B3 flares while Region 1660 (N12W15) was fairly quiet, yet was the most magnetically complex region on the disk. It has continued to show growth in the trailer spots and extended its length from five degrees to just over seven. This region currently appears to be a Dai/Beta-Gamma region and will be the area of interest for the next few days.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be at low levels on days one, two, and three (22 Jan, 23 Jan, 24 Jan).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 20-2100Z a 21-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 409 km/s at 21/0029Z. Total IMF reached 16.2 nT at 21/1513Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5.2 nT at 21/1513Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 268 pfu.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels for the next three days (22 Jan, 23 Jan, 24 Jan).
III. Probabilidades del evento 22 Jan a 24 Jan
Clase M10%10%10%
Clase X01%01%01%
Protón01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
  Observado       21 Jan 108
  Previsto   22 Jan-24 Jan 105/100/095
  Media de 90 Días        21 Jan 121

V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
  Observado Afr/Ap 20 Jan  008/008
  Estimado     Afr/Ap 21 Jan  004/004
  Previsto    Afr/Ap 22 Jan-24 Jan  006/005-006/005-006/005

VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 22 Jan a 24 Jan
A. Latitudes Medias
Activo10%10%10%
Tormenta Menor05%05%05%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa01%01%01%
B. Latitudes Altas
Activo15%15%15%
Tormenta Menor15%15%15%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa15%15%15%

All times in UTC

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