Viendo archivo del domingo, 17 febrero 2013
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2013 Feb 17 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 48 Publicado el 2200Z a las 17 Feb 2013IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 16-2100Z hasta 17-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
17/1550Z from Region 1675 (N12E18). There are currently 5 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be at low
levels on days one, two, and three (18 Feb, 19 Feb, 20 Feb).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 16-2100Z a 17-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
403 km/s at 16/2302Z. Total IMF reached 9.5 nT at 16/2101Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -7.3 nT at 17/1417Z.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels for the next three days (18 Feb, 19 Feb,
20 Feb).
III. Probabilidades del evento 18 Feb a 20 Feb
| Clase M | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 17 Feb 106 Previsto 18 Feb-20 Feb 110/110/110 Media de 90 Días 17 Feb 116
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 16 Feb 006/011 Estimado Afr/Ap 17 Feb 008/008 Previsto Afr/Ap 18 Feb-20 Feb 006/008-007/008-011/012
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 18 Feb a 20 Feb
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 10% | 20% | 30% |
| Tormenta Menor | 01% | 05% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 20% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 15% | 25% | 20% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 10% | 25% | 15% |
All times in UTC
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