Viendo archivo del sábado, 16 marzo 2013
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2013 Mar 16 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 75 Publicado el 2200Z a las 16 Mar 2013IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 15-2100Z hasta 16-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at
16/0539Z from Region 1698 (S19W57). There are currently 6 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (17
Mar, 18 Mar, 19 Mar).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 15-2100Z a 16-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
551 km/s at 16/0506Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 16/0257Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 16/0309Z. Protons greater
than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 12 pfu at
16/2015Z.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to major storm levels on day one (17 Mar), quiet to
active levels on day two (18 Mar) and quiet levels on day three (19
Mar). Protons are expected to cross threshold on day one (17 Mar), are
likely to cross threshold on day two (18 Mar) and have a chance of
crossing threshold on day three (19 Mar).
III. Probabilidades del evento 17 Mar a 19 Mar
| Clase M | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 75% | 60% | 25% |
| PCAF | yellow | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 16 Mar 126 Previsto 17 Mar-19 Mar 125/120/115 Media de 90 Días 16 Mar 116
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 15 Mar 005/005 Estimado Afr/Ap 16 Mar 012/015 Previsto Afr/Ap 17 Mar-19 Mar 028/039-014/020-006/005
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 17 Mar a 19 Mar
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 30% | 30% | 05% |
| Tormenta Menor | 35% | 10% | 01% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 20% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 05% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 20% | 30% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 70% | 40% | 05% |
All times in UTC
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Hechos clima espacial
| Último evento clase X | 30/03/2026 | X1.5 |
| Último evento clase M | 28/03/2026 | M1.3 |
| Últimas tormentas geomagnéticas | 25/03/2026 | Kp5+ (G1) |
| Días sin manchas | |
|---|---|
| Last 365 days | 3 días |
| 2026 | 3 días (3%) |
| Último día sin manchas | 24/02/2026 |
| Promedio de manchas solares mensuales | |
|---|---|
| febrero 2026 | 78.2 -34.3 |
| abril 2026 | 130 +51.8 |
| Last 30 days | 91.6 +20.3 |
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