Viendo archivo del jueves, 12 septiembre 2013
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2013 Sep 12 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 255 Publicado el 2200Z a las 12 Sep 2013IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 11-2100Z hasta 12-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (13
Sep, 14 Sep, 15 Sep).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 11-2100Z a 12-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 452 km/s at
12/2055Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at 12/1946Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -5 nT at 12/1905Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV
at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 229 pfu.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (13 Sep) with a slight chance
for minor storm levels, quiet to unsettled levels on day two (14 Sep)
and quiet levels on day three (15 Sep).
III. Probabilidades del evento 13 Sep a 15 Sep
| Clase M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 12 Sep 093 Previsto 13 Sep-15 Sep 095/100/100 Media de 90 Días 12 Sep 113
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 11 Sep 006/004 Estimado Afr/Ap 12 Sep 007/008 Previsto Afr/Ap 13 Sep-15 Sep 013/015-008/008-005/005
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 13 Sep a 15 Sep
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 30% | 10% | 05% |
| Tormenta Menor | 15% | 05% | 01% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 30% | 25% | 15% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 45% | 20% | 05% |
All times in UTC
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