Viendo archivo del viernes, 13 septiembre 2013
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2013 Sep 13 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 256 Publicado el 2200Z a las 13 Sep 2013IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 12-2100Z hasta 13-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (14
Sep, 15 Sep, 16 Sep).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 12-2100Z a 13-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
603 km/s at 13/0108Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at 13/1603Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 13/1525Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 178 pfu.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is likely to
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (14 Sep) with a chance for
active conditions, mostly quiet levels on day two (15 Sep) and likely to
be at active levels on day three (16 Sep) with a slight chance for minor
storm conditions.
III. Probabilidades del evento 14 Sep a 16 Sep
| Clase M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 13 Sep 092 Previsto 14 Sep-16 Sep 100/100/100 Media de 90 Días 13 Sep 113
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 12 Sep 005/007 Estimado Afr/Ap 13 Sep 008/011 Previsto Afr/Ap 14 Sep-16 Sep 008/010-005/005-013/015
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 14 Sep a 16 Sep
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 30% | 05% | 50% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 01% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 25% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 35% | 15% | 35% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 25% | 05% | 45% |
All times in UTC
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