Viendo archivo del jueves, 19 diciembre 2013
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2013 Dec 19 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 353 Publicado el 2200Z a las 19 Dec 2013IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 18-2100Z hasta 19-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at
19/1535Z from Region 1928 (S16W19). There are currently 9 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (20 Dec, 21 Dec,
22 Dec).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 18-2100Z a 19-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 409 km/s at
19/1447Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 18/2225Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -5 nT at 19/0034Z.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (20 Dec, 21 Dec, 22
Dec).
III. Probabilidades del evento 20 Dec a 22 Dec
| Clase M | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Clase X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 19 Dec 153 Previsto 20 Dec-22 Dec 155/150/145 Media de 90 Días 19 Dec 140
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 18 Dec 003/003 Estimado Afr/Ap 19 Dec 004/005 Previsto Afr/Ap 20 Dec-22 Dec 005/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 20 Dec a 22 Dec
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Tormenta Menor | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 05% | 05% |
All times in UTC
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