Viendo archivo del viernes, 20 diciembre 2013
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2013 Dec 20 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 354 Publicado el 2200Z a las 20 Dec 2013IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 19-2100Z hasta 20-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M3 event observed at
19/2319Z from Region 1934 (S15E65). There are currently 9 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
days one, two, and three (21 Dec, 22 Dec, 23 Dec).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 19-2100Z a 20-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
391 km/s at 20/0820Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 20/0146Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 19/2201Z.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (21 Dec, 22 Dec, 23
Dec).
III. Probabilidades del evento 21 Dec a 23 Dec
| Clase M | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Clase X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 20 Dec 149 Previsto 21 Dec-23 Dec 150/145/140 Media de 90 Días 20 Dec 140
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 19 Dec 004/004 Estimado Afr/Ap 20 Dec 006/006 Previsto Afr/Ap 21 Dec-23 Dec 005/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 21 Dec a 23 Dec
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Tormenta Menor | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 05% | 05% |
All times in UTC
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