Viendo archivo del miércoles, 10 septiembre 2014
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2014 Sep 10 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 253 Publicado el 2200Z a las 10 Sep 2014IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 09-2100Z hasta 10-2100Z Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was an X1/2b event observed at
10/1745Z from Region 2158 (N15E00). There are currently 7 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be moderate
with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (11 Sep, 12
Sep, 13 Sep).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 09-2100Z a 10-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
396 km/s at 10/1533Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 10/2038Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 10/1917Z. Protons greater
than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2 pfu at
09/2125Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 212 pfu.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (11 Sep), quiet to major storm levels
on day two (12 Sep) and quiet to minor storm levels on day three (13
Sep). Protons have a chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and
three (11 Sep, 12 Sep, 13 Sep).
III. Probabilidades del evento 11 Sep a 13 Sep
| Clase M | 85% | 85% | 85% |
| Clase X | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Protón | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 10 Sep 160 Previsto 11 Sep-13 Sep 160/165/165 Media de 90 Días 10 Sep 129
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 09 Sep 008/006 Estimado Afr/Ap 10 Sep 007/008 Previsto Afr/Ap 11 Sep-13 Sep 006/005-021/032-018/018
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 11 Sep a 13 Sep
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 10% | 30% | 45% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 45% | 25% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 20% | 05% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 05% | 10% |
| Tormenta Menor | 20% | 15% | 25% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 20% | 79% | 70% |
All times in UTC
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