Viendo archivo del jueves, 11 septiembre 2014
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2014 Sep 11 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 254 Publicado el 2200Z a las 11 Sep 2014IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 10-2100Z hasta 11-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M2 event observed at
11/1526Z. There are currently 9 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be moderate
with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (12 Sep, 13
Sep, 14 Sep).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 10-2100Z a 11-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
404 km/s at 11/0248Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 10/2252Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 11/0356Z. Protons greater
than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 28 pfu at
11/0515Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 154 pfu.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to major storm levels on day one (12 Sep), active to
severe storm levels on day two (13 Sep) and unsettled to minor storm
levels on day three (14 Sep). Protons are expected to cross threshold on
days one and two (12 Sep, 13 Sep) and are expected to cross threshold on
day three (14 Sep).
III. Probabilidades del evento 12 Sep a 14 Sep
| Clase M | 85% | 85% | 85% |
| Clase X | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| Protón | 99% | 99% | 90% |
| PCAF | red | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 11 Sep 151 Previsto 12 Sep-14 Sep 152/150/150 Media de 90 Días 11 Sep 129
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 10 Sep 009/009 Estimado Afr/Ap 11 Sep 012/012 Previsto Afr/Ap 12 Sep-14 Sep 028/040-037/060-018/025
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 12 Sep a 14 Sep
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 25% | 15% | 45% |
| Tormenta Menor | 45% | 40% | 30% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 25% | 45% | 05% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 05% | 01% | 05% |
| Tormenta Menor | 15% | 10% | 20% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 85% | 90% | 75% |
All times in UTC
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