Viendo archivo del martes, 4 noviembre 2014
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2014 Nov 04 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 308 Publicado el 2200Z a las 04 Nov 2014IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 03-2100Z hasta 04-2100Z Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a M6 event observed at
03/2240Z from Region 2205 (N14E84). There are currently 7 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(05 Nov, 06 Nov, 07 Nov).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 03-2100Z a 04-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
482 km/s at 04/2052Z. Total IMF reached 14 nT at 04/1208Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -12 nT at 04/1156Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 264 pfu.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (05 Nov) with a slight chance
for minor storm conditions, quiet to unsettled levels on day two (06
Nov) and quiet levels on day three (07 Nov). Protons have a slight
chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (05 Nov, 06
Nov, 07 Nov).
III. Probabilidades del evento 05 Nov a 07 Nov
| Clase M | 55% | 55% | 55% |
| Clase X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Protón | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 04 Nov 129 Previsto 05 Nov-07 Nov 135/135/135 Media de 90 Días 04 Nov 140
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 03 Nov 005/004 Estimado Afr/Ap 04 Nov 012/015 Previsto Afr/Ap 05 Nov-07 Nov 009/012-008/008-007/008
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 05 Nov a 07 Nov
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 30% | 20% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 30% | 30% | 25% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 40% | 30% | 25% |
All times in UTC
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Hechos clima espacial
| Último evento clase X | 30/03/2026 | X1.5 |
| Último evento clase M | 04/04/2026 | M1.3 |
| Últimas tormentas geomagnéticas | 03/04/2026 | Kp7- (G3) |
| Días sin manchas | |
|---|---|
| Last 365 days | 3 días |
| 2026 | 3 días (3%) |
| Último día sin manchas | 24/02/2026 |
| Promedio de manchas solares mensuales | |
|---|---|
| marzo 2026 | 85.9 +7.7 |
| abril 2026 | 133.3 +47.4 |
| Last 30 days | 96.9 +35.1 |
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