Viendo archivo del lunes, 1 diciembre 2014
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2014 Dec 01 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 335 Publicado el 2200Z a las 01 Dec 2014IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 30-2100Z hasta 01-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
01/0641Z from Region 2222 (S21E03). There are currently 9 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (02 Dec, 03 Dec,
04 Dec).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 30-2100Z a 01-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
615 km/s at 01/2028Z. Total IMF reached 14 nT at 01/1748Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at 01/2024Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 203 pfu.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (02 Dec) and quiet levels on
days two and three (03 Dec, 04 Dec).
III. Probabilidades del evento 02 Dec a 04 Dec
| Clase M | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Clase X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Protón | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 01 Dec 168 Previsto 02 Dec-04 Dec 165/160/160 Media de 90 Días 01 Dec 152
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 30 Nov 006/006 Estimado Afr/Ap 01 Dec 013/015 Previsto Afr/Ap 02 Dec-04 Dec 009/010-007/008-007/008
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 02 Dec a 04 Dec
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 20% | 20% |
| Tormenta Menor | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 20% | 20% | 20% |
All times in UTC
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